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CD-9 Update

We’re in the last few weeks of the 2012 campaign. As expected, it’s been a very interesting race in CD-9. Ricky Gill (R), a political neophyte, and Jerry McNerney (D), an incumbent who was forced to change districts, are locked in what most observers believe to either be a “tossup” or “lean Democratic” contest. McNerney began with a somewhat favorable district profile, but by force of will, good strategy, and effective campaigning Gill has made it a contest worth talking about.

Here are some numbers to give you a sense of the state of the race:

Fundraising/Campaign Spending

Gill has outraised McNerney at this point in the cycle. Data from the Center for Responsive Politics show that Gill has raised $2.5 million compared to McNerney’s $2.0 million. Gill’s money has mostly come from large donors (79% of all donors) and donors in the district (about a third from the Stockton-Lodi metro area). McNerney’s money has come from large donors (53%) and PACS (34%), and most of it has come from outside the district.

These individual numbers, however, do not tell the whole story about campaign spending in CD-9. Just as in the presidential race, outside groups are pouring a lot of money into the race. Roughly $3.0 million has been spent by outside groups so far, and the bulk of that money has been spent on behalf of Gill. The National Republican Congressional Committee (the House Republican’s campaign committee) has spent $2.2 million on behalf of Gill, and the Chamber of Commerce has spent an additional $500,000 on his behalf. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has spend just $230,000 on behalf of McNerney.

Put it all together, and Republicans have raised and spent $5.2 million for Gill compared to just $2.3 million for McNerney by Democrats. That’s a $3.0 million advantage for Gill.

Polls

For all that money, McNerney may still win. Relatively few public opinion polls have been done in the area. From Pollster, the most recent poll (10/8-10), by Global Strategy Group (DCCC), has McNerney up by 9 points, 47-38, with 15 percent undecided. The previous poll (9/30-10/2), by Tarrance (Gill Campaign), had Gill up by 1 point, 45-46, with 9 percent undecided.

Outraised and outspent, McNerney is either basically tied or ahead by quite a lot. I give you the power of incumbency and the power of a Democratic leaning district.

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Categories: Political Campaigns
  1. October 23, 2012 at 4:13 am

    Yay, I’m glad this is a blog topic! I personally worked for candidate Ricky Gill for a short period of time last month, although he is the republican candidate and I am a registered democrat I liked his ideals. When I had just researched Ricky before hand, and when I met him he seemed like the best choice; he was a local, had good views and plans and vouched for the working class, since he is also twenty four (I think or twnty five) he has an in with the young people and seemed to be more current and relateable (his whole campaign consists of local high school and college voluenteers). Also his arguements aganist current congressmen Jeremy Mcnerny seemed pretty valid, McNerney is not a local, he rents a house in stockton and he resides in SF, he has been in office for six years and has nothing to show etc. etc. However upon a more personal level, and if I were able to vote (not from the district) I would have to go with McNerney, I am not bad mouthing Ricky but from my experience he lacks just that experience, and I feel he has the potential to be a great cogressmen, just now is not the best time. Ricky went straight from high school, to princeton to law school and less than a year later is running for congress, his claims that appeal to locals is his immagrint working background and his experience running a small buisness; he resides on a farm yes but on in million dollar ranch house, his parents were immigrants but not workers, buisness people and that small buisness is the family buisness. I feel it is safe to say Ricky is young, he has never had a real job and I feel he doesn’t know exactly what he is getting himself into. McNerney is getting the blame for Stockton’s worst economic situation and it is naive to put the blame on him alone, Stockton had it coming and it was only a matter of time, even when McNerney was voted in he knew what was to come, and is still willing to help this community for anyone who takes over this district it won’t be an easy task and there definately aren’t going to be any changes over night, situations like this take time and I really do think McNerney can do the work.

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