bklunk:

No post from our assigned faculty member, so how about this reblog for fun.

Originally posted on abrahampenrose:

A tribute to the mathematician who predicted the outcome of all 50 states correctly in 2012. Nate Silver, of http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Nate Silver is my statistician; I shall not fret.
He maketh me to lie down in blue states:
He leadeth me beside the bicoastal urban elites.
He restoreth my faith in the electoral college:
He leadeth me in the path of accuracy for his name brand’s sake.
Yea, though I walk through the valley of Diebold,
I will fear no recounts: For he is with me;
His blog and his stats, they comfort me.
He preparest a table of odds before me in the presence of partisan hacks;
He filleth my head with possible outcomes; My brain bloweth up. Surely middle class tax relief and affordable health care shall follow me all the days of my life,
and Obama will dwell in the House of White for the next four…

View original 263 more words

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  1. Jesus Hernandez
    November 8, 2012 at 2:00 pm | #1

    It’s really amazing what an effective grasp on statistics can accomplish. Definitely an admirable feat.

  2. Prof. Keith Smith
    November 8, 2012 at 2:03 pm | #2

    He’s a witch! [http://isnatesilverawitch.com/]

  3. john yonke
    November 8, 2012 at 2:17 pm | #3

    I read about this guy in Sports Illustrated a couple of weeks ago, he’s remarkable. Called 49 out of 50 states in 2008, and 50 out of 50 states in 2012, now how can he improve? He can’t, politics are too easy for this man, he should help me with my fantasy baseball team next year instead!

    • bklunk
      November 8, 2012 at 2:23 pm | #4

      JD,

      Silver started out doing baseball. He is one of the developers of the PECOTA system at Baseball Prospectus.

  4. bklunk
    November 8, 2012 at 2:22 pm | #5

    Everybody remember what Jesus said.

  5. Jordyn Doyle
    November 8, 2012 at 2:51 pm | #6

    It’s not surprising Nate silver was right. He’s been pretty consistent with being correct during the last few elections.

  6. Melissa Blakemore
    November 8, 2012 at 2:55 pm | #7

    Interesting blog. Sorry but I have never followed Nate Silver.

  7. Prof. Keith Smith
    November 8, 2012 at 3:01 pm | #8

    I repeat: He’s a witch! [http://isnatesilverawitch.com/]

  8. sherie salomonsson
    November 8, 2012 at 6:01 pm | #9

    Its so interesting how statistics can be so beneficial to political science and even more so, the elections. Its crazy how accurate he is, theres no wonder why he is such a well known and reputable source. I know that in four years I’m gonna be looking to him to project the electoral votes once again, it’ll be cool to see him prove himself over and over.

  9. Lexa Buerer
    November 8, 2012 at 7:53 pm | #10

    This is really interesting considering I have never heard of Nate Silver. It’s shocking to me that someone could call 49 out of 50 states and now being able to call all 50 states just by analyzing data, it really is remarkable.

  10. bklunk
    November 9, 2012 at 9:58 am | #11

    Okay, If you throw Nate Silver in water he will float so I guess he is a witch (see http://youtu.be/zrzMhU_4m-g for the logic underlying that claim). The point is that paying careful attention to real information makes it harder to be betrayed by our hopes and expectations, what psychologists call motivated bias. HIs model probably won’t always perform so well, but maybe his work and the work at Princeton Election Consortium and other places will encourage the pundit classes to offer fewer predictions and more interpretations about what is the larger significance of the choice in an election.

  11. bklunk
    November 9, 2012 at 10:00 am | #12

    Wait, that logic is silly. Maybe he’s not a witch.

  12. Sam Stodolski
    November 9, 2012 at 4:09 pm | #13

    I just wonder how long it will be before the parties try to pull him in as a campaign consultant!

  13. Monique
    November 26, 2012 at 11:54 pm | #14

    Wow! This is crazy. It is really amazing how accurate he is on statistics and how helpful it can be to political science. I have never heard of him, but am extremely impressed.

  14. November 29, 2012 at 1:39 pm | #15

    Oh gosh! I find it so interesting that just statistics can show so much accuracy. Nate Silver is completely new to me but he is definitely impressive considering the fact that he was so consistent and right on point to predict all of that just by analyzing! Mind blown!

  15. Donna
    December 14, 2012 at 7:02 pm | #16

    Thats very impressive how accurately and good he is at statistics. I’ve never heard of Nate silver nor have I followed up on such a subject but seeing this today really caught my attention.

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